Economic Analysis

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July saw the central bank, once again, leave policy on hold. The July FOMC outcome was very much in line with market expectations. However, unlike at the June meeting, the FOMC was not unanimous in its decision. Two FOMC members (Bowman and Waller) voted in favour of an immediate rate cut of 25bps. 

The July ECB Governing Council meeting saw the central bank leave interest rates on hold. The deposit and refi rates were maintained at 2.00% and 2.15%, respectively. This was the first ECB meeting of 2025 where the central bank refrained from lowering rates. However, this outcome was very much in line with market expectations

Manufacturing PMI stayed firmly in expansion mode, rising to 53.7 in June, The services PMI fell to 51.5 in June, consistent with a slower pace of growth, Core retail sales were up by 0.3% in the three months to May, Housing commencements 12 month running total back below 41k in June, House price annual inflation rose to +7.9% in May, CPI inflation rate rose to 1.8% in June. HICP rate increased to 1.6% also, Goods exports up by 46.9% YTD in May, led by a sharp increase in pharma exports (+108%), 12 month rolling Exchequer surplus narrowed to €14.2bn in June.

The Summer Economic Statement (SES) and National Development Plan (NDP) are key milestones towards Budget 2026. The SES sets out the fiscal boundaries of the Budget 2026 package to be announced in the autumn, while the NDP outlines the Government’s medium-term infrastructure priorities. 

The June meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary policy committee (MPC) saw the central bank leave the Bank rate unchanged at 4.25%. This followed a 25bpd reduction in May. Today's decision for unaltered rates was very much in line with the market expectations. So far in the current easing cycle, which began in August last year, the BOE has caught a total of 100bps.

Risk appetite improves following significant uncertainty/volatility in the aftermath of “Liberation day” However, there is still limited clarity on the ultimate landing zone for US tariffs. Market attention also focused on US fiscal & monetary policy, as well as geopolitical tensions Fed on hold for now. ECB near the end of its cutting cycle. BoE retains an easing bias. The dollar has weakened further in recent weeks. Euro likely to hold its gains, but high uncertainty still due to the evolving US policy landscape.

As we reach the halfway mark of 2025, the Irish residential property market continues to be defined by a shortfall in supply. The CSO completions data, which is the official measure of new supply indicate, a disappointing performance over the last year from the residential construction perspective.

The global economy entered 2025 in good shape, with indicators pointing to stronger growth in the Eurozone and UK, and continued robust, yet moderating growth in the US. However, the uncertainty created by the imposition of US trade tariffs, followed by partial 90-day delays, has created volatility in financial markets and concern in the real economy.